Chapter 48: Surprise

195      pollsters predicting a victory  For example, Leiden University’s Tom Louwerse’s “poll-of-polls” (Peilingwijzer), which aggregates “the most reputable” and is considered to be “an authoritative source for polling results” by the media, predicted a PVV victory. As explained in a subsequent note (see “predicted a victory . . . did not predict a huge victory” trailing phrase below), polls underestimated the scale of PVV’s victory. Joop J. M. van Holsteyn and Galen A. Irwin, “The Dutch Parliamentary Elections of November 2023,” West European Politics 48, no. 2 (2025), www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402382.2024.2397629. The day before the election, pollster Maurice de Hond predicted that the PVV had “the best chance of winning.” Maurice de Hond, “Forecast for the Outcome of the Historic 2023 Parliamentary Elections,” November 21, 2023, www.maurice.nl/2023/11/21/prognose-voor-de-uitslag-van-de-historische-tk-verkiezingen-2023/, via Google Translate.

195      did not compose a victory speech  Shannon Vavra, “Report: Trump Didn’t Have a Victory Speech Prepared on Election Night,” Axios, July 17, 2017, www.axios.com/2017/12/15/report-trump-didnt-have-a-victory-speech-prepared-on-election-night-1513304256; and Chris Cillizza, “Let’s Dispel the Biggest Myth of the 2016 Election,” CNN, updated June 15, 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/trump-2016-election-not-expect-to-win-mary-jordan/index.html.

195      did not think he was going to be victorious  Cillizza,   “Let’s Dispel the Biggest Myth of the 2016 Election,” www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/trump-2016-election-not-expect-to-win-mary-jordan/index.html.

195      visit one of his golf courses in Scotland  Cillizza,   “Let’s Dispel the Biggest Myth of the 2016 Election,” www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/trump-2016-election-not-expect-to-win-mary-jordan/index.html.

195      wanted to avoid Hillary Clinton’s victory lap  Cillizza,   “Let’s Dispel the Biggest Myth of the 2016 Election,” www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/trump-2016-election-not-expect-to-win-mary-jordan/index.html.

195      “Fuel up the plane”  Donald Trump quoted in Cillizza, “Let’s Dispel the Biggest Myth of the 2016 Election,” www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/trump-2016-election-not-expect-to-win-mary-jordan/index.html.

195      underestimated his appeal to voters in 2023 Nimo Omer, “Friday Briefing: What Now After Geert Wilders’ Surprise Success in the Dutch Election,” The Guardian, November 24, 2023, www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/first-edition-dutch-election-geert-wilders.

195      predicted a victory . . . did not predict a huge victory “[A]lthough Dutch polls generally have a good reputation for accuracy, in 2023 they were wide of the mark, at least if viewed as somehow a prediction of the eventual election results. In his final report of the Peilingwijzer, Louwerse noted a strong surge for the PVV and a drop-in support for the NSC [New Social Contract]. The actual results for the NSC were within the margin of error, but the results for the PVV far exceeded even the last ‘predictions’ of 21 November. Rather than the 25 to 29 seats that were predicted for the PVV, on 22 November the party gained 37 seats, making it by far the largest party in Parliament. GL/PvdA [GroenLinks–PvdA, or the GreenLeft and Labour Party alliance] followed with 25 seats, followed by the VVD [People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy] with 24; NSC ‘fell’ to 20 seats. The shock of these results can hardly be overestimated. The media referred to ‘a political earthquake’ in general and ‘an unprecedented victory for the PVV’ in particular.” Van Holsteyn and Irwin, “The Dutch Parliamentary Elections of November 2023,” www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402382.2024.2397629. For a comparison of poll predictions with the election results, see Table 2 in van Holsteyn and Irwin, “The Dutch Parliamentary Elections of November 2023,” www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402382.2024.2397629. See also de Hond, “Forecast for the Outcome of the Historic 2023 Parliamentary Elections,” www.maurice.nl/2023/11/21/prognose-voor-de-uitslag-van-de-historische-tk-verkiezingen-2023/, via Google Translate.

195      “Dutch Donald Trump”  Mike Corder, “Dutch Election Winner Geert Wilders Is an Anti-Islam Firebrand Known as the Dutch Donald Trump,” Associated Press (AP) News, updated November 22, 2023, apnews.com/article/wilders-netherlands-islam-trump-8efc30fa18dd9c4a0da21b25eca9e01d.

195–196  “coziest brown café”  Cafe 't Seepaardje, “Intro,” Facebook, accessed January 30, 2025, www.facebook.com/seepaardje/?locale=nl_NL, via Google Translate.

195–196  “large terrace, billiards, darts, and a pool table”  Cafe 't Seepaardje, “Intro,” www.face book.com/seepaardje/?locale=nl_NL.

196      compared the Quran to Mein Kampf  Koen Damhuis, “‘The Biggest Problem in the Netherlands’: Understanding the Party for Freedom’s Politicization of Islam,” Brookings Institution, July 24, 2019, www.brookings.edu/articles/the-biggest-problem-in-the-netherlands-understanding-the-party-for-freedoms-politicization-of-islam.

196      demanded the banning of the Quran and mosques  Damhuis, “‘The Biggest Problem in the Netherlands,’” www.brookings.edu/articles/the-biggest-problem-in-the-netherlands-understanding-the-party-for-freedoms-politicization-of-islam.

196      roughly 6 percent  In both 2019 and 2024, the Muslim population of the Netherlands was estimated to be around 6 percent. See “What Are the Major Religions?” The Netherlands in Numbers: 2024 Edition, Central Bureau voor de Statistiek, accessed January 30, 2025, longreads.cbs.nl/the-netherlands-in-numbers-2024/what-are-the-major-religions; and Damhuis, “‘The Biggest Problem in the Netherlands,’” www.brookings.edu/articles/the-biggest-problem-in-the-netherlands-understanding-the-party-for-freedoms-politicization-of-islam.

196      “We are being replaced if we don’t act soon”  Geert Wilders, Twitter, August 29, 2017, 12:04 a.m., x.com/geertwilderspvv/status/902381341001560064, archived at archive.today, February 9, 2026 capture, archive.ph/wip/AHu4W.

196      “Stop the Islamization of the West!”  Wilders, Twitter, August 29, 2017, x.com/geertwilderspvv/status/902381341001560064, archived at archive.ph/wip/AHu4W.

196      “the Islamification” of his country  Renaud Camus, Le Grand Remplacement (Paris: Reinharc, 2011), trans. Grace Ashton (unpublished translation), 74. Find the library book at search.worldcat.org/es/title/Le-grand-remplacement/oclc/767578742.

196      founded the Party for Freedom in 2006  Geeta Mohan, “Rise of Geert Wilders in Netherlands, and the Growing Far Right in Europe: Analysis,” Times of India, updated November 28, 2023, www.indiatoday.in/world/story/rise-of-geert-wilders-netherlands-the-growing-far-right-in-europe-analysis-2468372-2023-11-28.

196      had left . . . People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy  Mohan, “Rise of Geert Wilders in Netherlands, and the Growing Far Right in Europe,” www.indiatoday.in/world/story/rise-of-geert-wilders-netherlands-the-growing-far-right-in-europe-analysis-2468372-2023-11-28.

196      objected to his old party supporting . . .  Mohan, “Rise of Geert Wilders in Netherlands, and the Growing Far Right in Europe,” www.indiatoday.in/world/story/rise-of-geert-wilders-netherlands-the-growing-far-right-in-europe-analysis-2468372-2023-11-28.

196      “You are no Europeans, and you will never be”  Geert Wilders quoted in Frank Langfitt, “Dutch Election Expected to Be Another Test for Anti-Immigrant Stance,” Morning Edition, NPR, March 13, 2017, www.npr.org/2017/03/13/519954240/dutch-election-expected-to-be-another-test-for-anti-immigrant-stance.

196      “An Islamic state like Turkey does not belong to Europe . . .”  Wilders quoted in Langfitt, “Dutch Election Expected to Be Another Test for Anti-Immigrant Stance,” www.npr.org/2017/03/13/519954240/dutch-election-expected-to-be-another-test-for-anti-immigrant-stance.