Chapter 122: Sanction Inflation

452      “And today, when our Motherland is defending . . .” “Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly,” President of Russia, Kremlin, February 29, 2024, www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/73585.

452      occupies nearly a fifth of the country  Center for Preventative Action (CPA), “War in Ukraine,” Global Conflict Tracker, Council on Foreign Relations, March 4, 2024, accessed via Wayback Machine, March 5, 2024 capture, web.archive.org/web/20240305112835/https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine.

452      Roughly half a million . . .  CPA, “War in Ukraine,” web.archive.org/web/20240305112835/https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine.

452      Approximately eleven million . . .  CPA, “War in Ukraine,” web.archive.org/web/20240305112835/https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine.

452      held steady in the second decade of the twenty-first century Jongrim Ha et al., “What Explains Global Inflation,” MPRA [Munich Personal RePEc Archive] Paper No. 119645 (January 13, 2024),mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119645/1/MPRA_paper_119645.pdf, 2.

452      dropped oil prices and global demand . . . dropping inflation rates  Ha et al., “What Explains Global Inflation,” mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119645/1/MPRA_paper_119645.pdf, 2.

452      rebounded while disruptions in supply spread  Kevin M. Camp et al., “From the Barrel to the Pump: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Prices for Petroleum Products,” Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2020, www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2020/article/from-the-barrel-to-the-pump.htm; and Ha et al., “What Explains Global Inflation,” mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119645/1/MPRA_paper_119645.pdf, 2.

452      Greater demand and less supply  Businesses increased their prices in reaction to these factors. See Ryan Hogg, “17,000 Company-Strong Study of COVID Greedflation Shows Most U.K. Firms Profited from Historic Cost-of-Living Crisis,” Fortune, May 17, 2024, fortune.com/europe/2024/05/17/greedflation-british-firms-profit-margins-cost-of-living-crisis-17000-firms/; Unite the Union, Profiteering Is breaking the Economy (May 2024), available at www.unitetheunion.org/what-we-do/unite-investigates/profit-margins-up-30-across-the-board, 7–10; and Carsten Jung and Chris Hayes, Inflation, Profits and Market Power: Towards a New Research and Policy Agenda (London: Institute for Public Policy Research and Common Wealth, December 2023), ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Downloads/1701878131_inflation-profits-and-market-power-dec-23.pdf?dm=1703078253, 3, 5, 7–14.

452      rise significantly around the world in 2021 The global inflation rate as measured by consumer prices was 1.9% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021. World Bank Group, “Inflation, Consumer Prices (Annual %),” accessed April 22, 2025, data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG.

452      blocked Ukraine from using . . . to export . . .  “Ukraine is the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil (50% of world exports), the third largest one of barley (18%), the fourth largest one of maize (16%) and the fifth largest one of wheat (12%).” European Council, “How the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Has Further Aggravated the Global Food Crisis,” last reviewed January 31, 2025, www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/how-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-has-further-aggravated-the-global-food-crisis/.

452      slapped sanctions on Russia, refusing to import Russian oil and coal  European Council, “Timeline—EU Sanctions Against Russia,” last reviewed March 14, 2025, www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/timeline-sanctions-against-russia/. For a complete list of embargoed products, see European Council, “EU Sanctions Against Russia Explained,” last reviewed March 31, 2025, www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia-explained/#sanctions.

452–453 With . . . prices soared Christophe Blot et al., “The Direct and Indirect Impacts of the War on Inflation,” Monetary Dialogue Papers, European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) (March 2023), www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2023/741487/IPOL_IDA(2023)741487_EN.pdf, 9.

453      dictate the prices of other goods and services  Blot et al., “The Direct and Indirect Impacts of the War on Inflation,” www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2023/741487/IPOL_IDA(2023)741487_EN.pdf, 9; and Philip Barrett, “How Food and Energy Are Driving the Global Inflation Surge,” IMF Blog, September 12, 2022, www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/09/09/cotw-how-food-and-energy-are-driving-the-global-inflation-surge.

453      rose in 2022 . . . unreached since the 1990s Ha et al., “What Explains Global Inflation,” mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119645/1/MPRA_paper_119645.pdf, 2.

453      started to cool . . . not rising as quickly, but remained high Stan Choe and Alex Veiga, “How the Markets and the Economy Surprised Investors and Economists in 2023, by the Numbers,” Associated Press (AP) News, December 20, 2023, apnews.com/article/markets-interest-rates-inflation-housing-economy-bitcoin-7750b85cfeb2f90080483a3358c7237a.

453      struggled to make ends meet See Mahima Kapoor, “Inflation, COVID Plunge 68 Million into Poverty in Asia,” Deutsche Welle (DW), August 24, 2023, www.dw.com/en/inflation-covid-plunge-68-million-into-poverty-in-asia/a-66617462; Débora Rey, “Rising Poverty Grips Argentina as Runaway Inflation Takes Its Toll,” AP News, September 27, 2023, apnews.com/article/argentina-poverty-inflation-massa-milei-d515d077f61147b203149d9e2a6a164c; Darya Korsunskaya et al., “Putin Grows War Economy but Incomes Suffer ‘Lost Decade,’” Reuters, March 14, 2024, www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-grows-war-economy-incomes-suffer-lost-decade-2024-03-14/; Pascal Hansens and Attila Kálmán, “‘People Buy Spectacularly Less’: Inflation-Hit Europe Weighs Costs Ahead of Elections,” Investigate Europe, May 16, 2024, www.investigate-europe.eu/posts/inflation-prices-greedflation-europe-eu-elections-2024; Alicia Wallace, “High Inflation Made Finances Worse for 65% of Americans Last Year,” CNN, May 21, 2024, www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/economy/economic-wellbeing-2023-inflation/index.html; and Medora Lee, “Inflation-Shocked Low- and Middle-Income Americans May Not Spend Normally for Years,” USA Today, October 25, 2024, www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/10/25/inflation-low-middle-income-lasting-impact/75796197007/.

453      denied his invasion . . . “Putin Attacks ‘Reckless and Insane' Western Sanctions and Denies Russia Stoking Inflation,” Euronews, June 17, 2022, www.euronews.com/2022/06/17/putin-attacks-reckless-and-insane-western-sanctions-and-denies-russia-stoking-inflation; and “Putin: West’s Russia Sanctions Triggering Global Economic Crisis,” Al Jazeera, May 12, 2022, www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/12/putin-wests-russia-sanctions-triggering-global-economic-crisis.

453      blamed the sanctions  “Putin attacks 'reckless and insane' Western sanctions and denies Russia stoking inflation,” www.euronews.com/2022/06/17/putin-attacks-reckless-and-insane-western-sanctions-and-denies-russia-stoking-inflation; and Reuters, “Putin: West’s Russia sanctions triggering global economic crisis,” www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/12/putin-wests-russia-sanctions-triggering-global-economic-crisis.

453      of fifty-seven “inflation shocks” since 1970  Max Zahn, “Inflation Has Helped Decide Elections Worldwide: Here’s What That Means for the Midterms,” ABC News, November 8, 2022, abcnews.go.com/Business/inflation-helped-decide-elections-worldwide-means-midterms/story?id=92808587.

453      about three out of four times . . . within two years  Zahn, “Inflation Has Helped Decide Elections Worldwide: Here’s What That Means for the Midterms,” abcnews.go.com/Business/inflation-helped-decide-elections-worldwide-means-midterms/story?id=92808587.

453      “voters who perceive the economy as [the] most important . . ."  Take Sipma and Carl C. Berning, “Economic Conditions and Populist Radical Right Voting: The Role of Issue Salience,” Electoral Studies 74 (December 2021), www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379421001281.

453      “The wealthier a country, the less people consider . . .” Sipma and Berning, “Economic Conditions and Populist Radical Right Voting,” www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379421001281.

453      “relatively popular” in wealthier countries Sipma and Berning, “Economic Conditions and Populist Radical Right Voting,” www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379421001281.

453      “populist radical right” . . . “they can successfully link it to other issues . . .”  Sipma and Berning, “Economic Conditions and Populist Radical Right Voting,” www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379421001281.

453      repeatedly connected immigration to inflation  See ABC Action News, “(Full Speech) Former President Trump announces 2024 presidential bid,” YouTube, November 15, 2022, youtu.be/8tSYwJ1_htE?si=8NcGuleAalxKS7kg, 38:39–39:57; and Jeanna Smialek et al., “Trump Blames Immigrant Surge for Housing Crisis: Most Economists Disagree.” New York Times, October 11, 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html.

454     “Just a few short years ago under my presidency . . .”  NBC Chicago, “Donald Trump’s Full Speech at 2024 RNC,” YouTube, July 19, 2024, youtu.be/dLUK_MEJP_M?si=nAYKJgITEQ3w8DIp, 39:24–40:02.

454     “Today, our cities are flooded with illegal aliens . . .”  NBC Chicago, “Donald Trump’s Full Speech at 2024 RNC,” 40:56–41:04 (“our cities are flooded”), youtu.be/dLUK_MEJP_M?si=nAYKJgITEQ3w8DIp, 41:44–41:51 (“inflation has wiped”).

454     “Alongside migration, which is gradually becoming . . .”  “Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ‘State of the Nation’ Address,” Cabinet Office of the Prime Minister, February 18, 2023, miniszterelnok.hu/en/prime-minister-viktor-orbans-state-of-the-nation-address-2023-02-18/.

454     “It is easy to talk about ‘diversity’ and ‘cosmopolitanism’ . . .”  Alice Weidel, Twitter, June 9, 2022, 4:56 a.m., x.com/AfD/status/1534821795634855938, archived at archive.today, February 10, 2026 capture, archive.ph/wip/Iaoum.

454     “inflation continues” as “millions” . . . “must pay even more into . . .”AfD, X, January 17, 2024, 4:51 a.m., x.com/AfD/status/1747557314335240653, archived at archive.today, February 10, 2026 capture, archive.ph/wip/M4Ytt.

454     a photo of a doctor examining a Black man  AfD, X, January 17, 2024, x.com/AfD/status/1747557314335240653, archived at archive.ph/wip/M4Ytt.

454     “25 BILLION EURO COSTS FOR 'REFUGEES”  AfD, X, January 17, 2024, x.com/AfD/status/1747557314335240653, archived at archive.ph/wip/M4Ytt.

454     about seven in ten . . . “abandoned by politicians in this crisis”  More in Common, “Future, Democracy, Togetherness: What Concerns German Society After a Year of Price Crisis,” August 2023, www.moreincommon.de/publikationen/zukunft-demokratie-miteinander-preiskrise/#jump_block_bcb6e7f45404f5bc4f898c17a66d7717, via Google Translate.

454     “a clear shift to the right” . . . and a clear rise in AfD’s popularity  Klaus Hurrelmann quoted in Hertie School, “Study Shows Young People in Germany Are Worried About Their Future,” press release, April 23, 2024, www.hertie-school.org/en/news/news/detail/content/study-shows-young-people-in-germany-are-worried-about-their-future.

454     won its first state election in party history in 2024 . . .  “Germany: Far-Right AfD Wins First State vote Since WWII,” Deutsche Welle (DW), September 1, 2024, updated September 2, 2024, www.dw.com/en/far-right-german-party-wins-first-state-election-since-wwii/live-70102882.

454     came within 1.4 percentage points of winning . . .“Germany: Far-Right AfD Wins First State vote Since WWII,” www.dw.com/en/far-right-german-party-wins-first-state-election-since-wwii/live-70102882.

454     more than half . . . “expensive housing”  “65% of respondents are currently worried about inflation, 54% are concerned about expensive housing, and 48% are afraid of poverty in old age. When it comes to social cohesion, 49% of young people fear social division and 41% are concerned about the reception of refugees.” Hertie School, “Study Shows Young People in Germany Are Worried About Their Future,” www.hertie-school.org/en/news/news/detail/content/study-shows-young-people-in-germany-are-worried-about-their-future.

454     significantly increased support . . . among lower-income Germans  Tarik Abou-Chadi et al., “Rental Market Risk and Radical Right Support,” Comparative Political Studies 58, no. 13 (December 2024), journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00104140241306963.

454–455 “higher rents constitute a significant threat . . .” Abou-Chadi et al., “Rental Market Risk and Radical Right Support,” journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00104140241306963.

455      “Far-right parties prosper when . . .”  Balakrishnan Rajagopal quoted in Jon Henley, “Fix Europe’s Housing Crisis or Risk Fuelling the Far-Right, UN Expert Warns,” The Guardian, May 6, 2024, www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/06/fix-europe-housing-crisis-risk-fuelling-far-right-un-expert-warns.

455      “That’s the situation many EU countries are now in . . .”  Rajagopal quoted in Henley, “Fix Europe’s Housing Crisis or Risk Fuelling the Far-Right, UN Expert Warns,” www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/06/fix-europe-housing-crisis-risk-fuelling-far-right-un-expert-warns. 

455      blamed immigrants for worsening . . . in the Netherlands On May 10, 2022, Wilders wrote on Twitter, “Huge housing shortage, significantly more expensive groceries, sky-high petrol and diesel prices, ten percent inflation, rising immigration, declining purchasing power, impoverished healthcare. In any other country, the cabinet would be tarred and feathered and chased out of the country.” Geert Wilders, Twitter, May 10, 2022, 2:24 a.m., x.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1523911747794571264, archived at archive.today, February 10, 2026 capture, archive.ph/wip/bKfbI.

455      “Groceries €1500 more expensive, €6500 for energy costs . . .” Geert Wilders, Twitter, August 10, 2022, 3:33 a.m., x.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1557268862994944003, archived at archive.today, February 10, 2026 capture, archive.ph/wip/XlljG.

455      “And in the meantime”. . . “are throwing away billions of euros on asylum . . .”  Wilders, Twitter, August 10, 2022, x.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1557268862994944003, archived at archive.ph/wip/XlljG.

455      “public service deprivation . . . an important role” . . . for “far-right” parties  Simone Cremaschi et al., “Geographies of Discontent: Public Service Deprivation and the Rise of the Far Right in Italy,” Harvard Business School Working Paper 24-024 (November 1, 2023), www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-024_da5e436e-b4e8-4215-b788-f6043dbc7d1f.pdf, 1.

455      The more voters suffer, the more they support . . .  In the case of the 2010 reform considered in the aforementioned study, “the reform was decided and implemented by a right-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.” Cremaschi et al., “Geographies of Discontent,” www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-024_da5e436e-b4e8-4215-b788-f6043dbc7d1f.pdf, 16.