LINK 5
Chapter 48: Surprise
000 pollsters predicting a victory
For example, Leiden University’s Tom Louwerse’s “poll-of-polls” (Peilingwijzer), which aggregates “the most reputable” and is considered to be “an authoritative source for polling results” by the media, predicted a PVV victory. As explained in a subsequent note (see “predicted a victory. . .did not predict a huge victory” trailing phrase below), polls underestimated the scale of PVV’s victory. Joop J. M. van Holsteyn and Galen A. Irwin, “The Dutch parliamentary elections of November 2023,” West European Politics 48, no. 2 (2025),
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402382.2024.2397629. The day before the election, pollster Maurice de Hond predicted that the PVV had “the best chance of winning.” Maurice de Hond, “Forecast for the outcome of the historic 2023 parliamentary elections,” November 21, 2023,
www.maurice.nl/2023/11/21/prognose-voor-de-uitslag-van-de-historische-tk-verkiezingen-2023/, via Google Translate.
000 did not compose a victory speech
Shannon Vavra, “Report: Trump didn't have a victory speech prepared on election night,” Axios, July 17, 2017,
www.axios.com/2017/12/15/report-trump-didnt-have-a-victory-speech-prepared-on-election-night-1513304256; and Chris Cillizza, “Let’s dispel the biggest myth of the 2016 election,” CNN, updated June 15, 2020,
www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/trump-2016-election-not-expect-to-win-mary-jordan/index.html.
000 did not think he was going to be victorious
Cillizza,
“Let’s dispel the biggest myth of the 2016 election,”
www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/trump-2016-election-not-expect-to-win-mary-jordan/index.html.
000 visit one of his golf courses in Scotland
Cillizza,
“Let’s dispel the biggest myth of the 2016 election,”
www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/trump-2016-election-not-expect-to-win-mary-jordan/index.html.
